When facing a table layout and figuring out what to do, every shot you consider falls will be within your comfort zone or in your chaos zone. A shot within your comfort zone means you can make it 7 or 8 times in 10 tries. As the chances of success get smaller, it falls into your chaos zone. Every shot has to calculate the odds.
To takes practice to apply cold numbers to a shot. In the beginning, you will overestimate your shooting ability. That opinion will soon be deflated by the results.
The better you get and as the quality of your opponents goes up, the more seriously you have to consider these numbers. Making a wishful mistake can cost you the game.
There is another important factor to be added into your odds calculator. You need to include your natural cycle of superior play and slumps. On the up side, you are shooting above average. On the down side, you miss easier shots, and failures are common. If you are not careful, you can get depressed, which only makes your slump worse.
With a trustworthy odds calculator, you can win more matches. When on the down side, simply subtract 20-30% from your regular expectations, and make your shot decisions – play offensively, play a two-way, or play defensively. On the up side, you can add 10-25% to your normal chances and make decisions accordingly.
It takes some time and practice to develop confidence in your odds calculator. But once it is working, it becomes a natural part of your analysis.
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